Probabilistic Cellular Automata Based Approach for Prediction of Hot Mudflow Disaster Area and Volume

Achmad , Basuki and Tri , Harsono and Kohei, Arai (2010) Probabilistic Cellular Automata Based Approach for Prediction of Hot Mudflow Disaster Area and Volume. Emitter , 1 (1). ISSN 2088-0596

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Abstract

Probabilistic Cellular Automata based approach for prediction of hot mudflow disaster is proposed. Hot mudflow spread like fluid dynamic with velocity, viscosity and thermal flow parameters. Therefore, a prediction model based on fluid dynamic is proposed. We use Cellular Automata approach because that is relatively simple and have a good enough performance for visualization of fluid dynamics. We use much simpler approach based on discrete Cellular Automata model for simulation of hot mudflow with adding some probabilistic parameters based on Gaussian function. We add some new rules to represent hot mudflow movement such as moving rule, precipitation rule, obstacle-changing rule and absorption rule. The prediction results show high accuracy elevation changes at the predicted points and its surrounding areas. We compare these predicted results to the digital elevation map derived from ASTER/DEM. We use some period maps to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the proposed method.

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